Last month, Theresa May stormed into the lead in our Party members’ survey of future Party leaders. Her support rose by 15 points, and she opened up a 12 point lead over Boris Johnson – having run neck to neck with him for three months.
The intervening period has seen her row with Michael Gove over Islamist extremism, serious problems at the Passport Office, and questions over the wisdom of the Government’s changes to the previous one’s control order system – not to mention the overhanging problem of immigration control, on which the Government is set not to deliver its central pledge.
All this has failed to knock the Home Secretary off her perch. Her support is down by five per cent. But she stays above the 30 per cent threshold. Boris, meanwhile, is down by three per cent – for no reason that I can see, though it’s important to add that the change is at the margins of statistical significance.
* George Osborne’s backing rises by four points. He is now third in the poll.
* Sajid Javid won more support last month in write-ins than Chris Grayling did at the bottom of the survey. So I thought it right to try his name out this month. He comes in at an lively total for a novice of seven per cent.
* Other changes are so small as to be incidental.
Here is the result in full:
Theresa May: 30 per cent (- 5 per cent).
Boris Johnson: 18 per cent (- 3 per cent).
George Osborne: 12 per cent (+ 4 per cent).
David Davis: 9.1 per cent ( – 1 per cent).
Michael Gove: 8.7 per cent (+ 1 per cent).
William Hague: 7.2 per cent (- 1 per cent).
Sajid Javid: 6.8 per cent (New entry).
Philip Hammond: 4 per cent (- 1 per cent).
Jeremy Hunt: 2 per cent (No change).
Owen Paterson: 2 per cent (No change).
Chris Grayling: 1 per cent (No change).
May is a point lower with all website repondents; Boris, two points lower; Davis, five points higher; Osborne, level with Davis.
There were over 800 party member responses to the survey. These are tested against the responses of a control panel supplied by YouGov.