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Last month, 62 per cent of respondents said that they expected David Cameron to be Prime Minister after the next election. (That figure is obtained by adding together the 24 per cent who expected a Conservative majority, the 18 per cent who expected a second Coalition and the 20 per cent who expected a Conservative minority government.)

This month, that headline figure has fallen to 55 per cent. (That’s obtained by adding together the 20 per cent who now expect a Conservative majority, the 16 per cent who expect a second Coalition and the 19 per cent who expect a Conservative minority government.)

In September, the headline finding of this section of the survey was that over two-thirds of Party members expected Cameron to be Prime Minister after the election.  Ed Miliband was having a dire summer, and Cameron’s rating in this section thus reached its highest point this year.

Since then, we have had the Party Conference season, Miliband’s attack on the utility companies, two months or so of him being widely seen as setting the political agenda…and Labour’s poll lead, in broad terms, opening up again.  In my view, this largely explains our survey result.

Here are the rest of the findings:

  • Last month, 58 per cent were either completely or broadly against re-forming the Coalition after the next election, while 34 per cent were either completely or broadly in favour of doing so. This month, those figures are 57 per cent and 33 per cent.
  • Last month, 46 per cent said that the Coalition should last until shortly before the next election.  This month, that figure is 45 per cent.
  • Last month, 55 per cent said that the Coalition will last until shortly before that election takes place. This month, that figure is unchanged.
  • Last month, 59 per cent said that the Coalition is, overall, a good thing for Britain. 36 per cent disagreed.  This month, those figures are 57 per cent and 38 per cent.
  • Last month, 31 per cent that the Coalition is, overall, a good thing for the Conservative Party.  62 per cent disagreed.  This month, those figures are 31 per cent and 64 per cent.

In short, Party members have made up their minds for the moment about all our regular poll questions – except that which asks about our chances at the next election.

Over 700 of them responded to the survey. Their replies are checked against those received from our control panel, which was put together by YouGov.

25 comments for: The number of Party members expecting Cameron to be Prime Minister after 2015 continues to fall

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