By Paul Goodman
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It's clear that the instincts of David Cameron and William Hague, as well as those of French Ministers, have long supported further western military intervention in Syria – that's to say, the supply of more weapons to the Syrian Free Army (British and French pressure eased an EU arms embargo in May); training for elements of it; backing for a no-fly zone.
However, any window for such intervention is no longer open. Opinions vary about whether it ever was: Mark Wallace and I have made different cases about the matter on this site. But the military advice the Prime Minister has received is that such action in concert with other western countries isn't practicable (regardless of whether or not it is advisable).
What the Prime Minister now wants overlaps with such action, but isn't identical with it – namely, a missile strike by western countries in response to what he believes was the use of chemical weapons in Ghoura by the Assad regime. But given the wariness in Westminster of Britain being dragged into Syria's civil war, he has three main obstacles to negotiate.
Julian Lewis, the former Shadow Defence Minister and an opponent of intervention, told me earlier today that there is a case for a missile strike (to show Assad that the use of chemical weapons will meet a response) and a case against (that it would almost certainly end the fragile rapprochment between America and Russia established over weapons inspections).
On balance, he said, he was against such a strike – but that there is an argument for it, and it can be kept distinct from the kind of intervention I described earlier. The Prime Minister could gamble by meeting with the National Security Council on Wednesday, obtaining its consent for an immediate strike, and justifying it after the Commons returns next week.
However, MPs would almost certainly see such a move as a breach of the spirit, if not the letter, of recent Foreign Office indications that the Commons would be consulted. Such short-term action would thus make any further strikes and intervention more difficult for the Government in the medium-term. My sense is that Number Ten recogises this.
The most rational way forward for Ministers, therefore, would be for them to make the case for a strike in the Commons. But it is far from certain that this would succeed. On the one hand, MPs will feel that any use of chemical weapons by Assad demands a response. On the other, they won't want Britain to act without UN agreement, and risk being dragged into the Syrian conflict.