- Yesterday evening's vote makes no real difference to anything. The economy will continue to grow, David Cameron will recover his position, Britain's non-intervention in Syria will be a mere blip in the continuing special relationship with America, our world standing won't be affected, the Commons will continue to assert itself – and the Westminster Village will calm down.
- Yesterday evening's vote marks a sea-change in our foreign policy and a shattering of the Special Relationship – as well as a wounding blow to Cameron's authority, a shot in the arm for his previously demoralised Tory opponents, and a wiping-out of the ascendancy over Labour that Downing Street has achieved over the summer. Britain cuts a diminished international figure on the world stage.
In the aftermath of yesterday evening's vote – apparently unparalleled since 1782 – it is impossible to know which version of events is the more accurate. What is clear, however, is that the failure of the Prime Minister's gamble over Syria is a reminder that the success of his summer to date has not bridged the gap of trust which persists between him and his MPs, and which at times can widen into a gulf.
Number 10 would be in panic mode were it immediately to effect the changes recommended below – the first two of which this site has been campaigning for since I became its Editor in April. But until or unless they are implemented, the progress which Downing Street has made since the Queen's Speech and the Baron amendment will be at constant risk of being set back. A hung Parliament requires a more collective style of leadership.
- Cameron needs to share authority with his most senior colleagues in an Inner Cabinet, and consult its Conservative members more often. I know from talking to some of the latter that they don't expect Cabinet to be a debating society. None the less, they are fed up with being cut out of decision-making when they feel their views and advice would help the Prime Minister. The Inner Cabinet should be based on what office its members hold, not on their personal relations with the Cameron, and should consist of the Chancellor, the Foreign Secretary, the Home Secretary, the Leader of the House, the Chief Whip and the Party Chairman who sits in the Commons.
- The status of the Whips Office should be raised. Sir George Young was brought back as Chief Whip after Andrew Mitchell's resignation, and brought a sense of calm and courtesy to its workings. It would be unfair to blame the Whips for the decision by Cameron to try to impose his view on Syria on an unhappy Parliamentary Party. And it would be a mistake to try to re-impose military-style whipping on the independent-minded generation of MPs elected in 2010. Furthermore, the best changes in the world won't improve the Whips if Downing Street doesn't listen to them. Tony Blair moved them out of Number 12. They should be moved back to the heart of the Downing Street complex.
- Cameron's inner circle should widen. None the less, Number 10 would benefit from having a Chief Whip and Leader of the House more independent of the Prime Minister, and thus in a better position to "speak truth to power". No Cabinet reshuffle is expected, and this isn't the time for it. But in due course one of the 2010 intake is required in a senior position in the Whips Office, and the next Chief Whip needs to be a listener and an organiser. Greg Hands or Nicky Morgan could act as Deputy. David Lidington, Mark Harper or Oliver Heald are good candidates to be Chief Whip. Eric Pickles is as independent-minded as Cabinet members get, and as Leader of the House would give Cameron plain and shrewd advice.
- The Foreign Office doesn't reflect the views and mood of the Parliamentary Party. This should change. I've been concerned for some time that the gap between its view of EU policy and that of the Party is too wide: the balance of competences review has so far proved the point. It also doesn't reflect the shift towards giving the national interest a higher priority that has been taking place in the Parliamentary Party since Iraq. Mark Francois is a former Shadow Europe Minister, very much a Euro-sceptic and a senior Minister at Defence, where he will have a grasp of what our armed forces now can and can't do. He should be moved across to King Charles Street before the election.