Published:

By Peter Hoskin
Follow Peter on Twitter

Another
month, another set of encouraging employment figures:

  • From October
    to December 2012, the headline employment rate was 71.5 per cent – a 0.3 per
    cent point rise on the previous quarter.
  • A record 29.73
    million people were in employment, up by 154,000 from the previous quarter.
    This also represents a rise of 584,000 over the previous year – the largest
    annual increase since 1989.
  • The economic
    inactivity rate for those aged 16 to 64 was 22.3 per cent, the lowest level
    since 1991.
  • The unemployment
    rate was 7.8 per cent; 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous quarter,
    and 0.2 percentage points lower than the level inherited from Labour.
  • Unemployment
    was down 14,000 this quarter. There were 12,500 fewer Jobseeker’s Allowance
    claimants.
  • Excluding
    those in full-time education, the youth unemployment rate was down 0.3
    percentage points on the previous quarter – although there were 2,000 more
    unemployed young people.
  • Long term
    unemployment fell by 15,000 on the quarter.

And
so on and so on.


But
how can the labour market be so buoyant when the economy is so leaden? Again,
we’ve been
here before
. At 1.4 per cent, wage growth is still being surpassed by inflation.
And—although today’s figures have it falling by 43,000 on the previous quarter—part-time
employment is persistently high. All this suggests that people are accepting
lower wages and fewer hours, rather than not working at all.  

In
fact, there’s graph in today’s release which suggests just how reliant the
economy has been on part-time workers since the downturn struck:

                            Annual
changes in the number of people in full-time and part-time employment,
seasonally adjusted
Graph

The
question now is whether these part-time jobs will lead to full-time work as the
economy improves.

Considerably
less encouraging was the news
that the 4G auction raised £2.34 billion – £1.16 billion lower than forecast by
the Office for Budget Responsibility. What’s a missing £1 billion when the national
debt stands at £1.4 trillion? Well, that £1 billion could be mean difference
between borrowing falling this year and not. At the moment, borrowing is
forecast to fall from £121.6 billion in 2011-12 to £120.3 billion in 2012-13 –
but that assumed the auction would raise £3.5 billion for the Treasury’s coffers.
Without that full sum, the difference between the two figures is practically negligible.
My former colleague Jonathan Jones provides more detail here,
but suffice to say that George Osborne will be hoping for fiscal improvements
elsewhere before the Budget is released.

Incidentally,
in his appearance on the
Today Programme
earlier, John Redwood criticised the OBR for being “consistently
wrong” with its forecasts – including on the 4G auction. My earlier
post
stands in response, although there is another, sympathetic point which
I’ve made
before
: the Government should place more stock in the pessimistic—not the
central— scenarios devised by the OBR, and others, when it’s coming up with
policy. 

Comments are closed.