By Paul Goodman
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That's the finding of a special poll of Tory members conducted by ConservativeHome conducted for Channel 4 News.
The questions and results were as follows:
1. Thinking of the next Conservative General Election manifesto, should the party…?
- Have a commitment to an in/out referendum to be held in the next Parliament: 42 per cent
- Commit to a renegotiation of Britain’s terms of membership with no explicit referendum promise: 17 per cent
- Commit to a renegotiation of Britain’s terms of membership to be followed by an in/out referendum: 41 per cent
2. If there was an In/Out referendum tomorrow would you vote?
- In: 23 per cent
- Out: 70 per cent
3. Which of the following options do you favour? (replicating an earlier ConservativeHome poll):
- The UK should remain full members of the EU and participate in further EU integration: 4 per cent
- The UK should remain full members of the EU but reject future integration: 8 per cent
- The UK should secure substantial renegotiation of its existing relationship with the EU but remain full members: 34 per cent
- The UK should leave the EU altogether and negotiate a separate trade agreement: 54 per cent
4. Thinking 10 years ahead, do you think Britain will still be in the EU?
- Yes, Britain will still be in the EU and the EU won’t be much changed: 26 per cent
- Yes, Britain will still be in the EU but the EU will be significantly reformed: 38 per cent
- No, Britain will be outside of the EU: 36 per cent
Channel 4's Political Editor, Gary Gibbon, makes the following points:
- "The poll also suggests that the pressure to have an absolute non-negotiable commitment to a referendum on the EU in the next Tory manifesto may well be insurmountable now.
- "Number 10 sources said that was pretty much where they had thought activist opinion was (The source added that he thought up to 100 Tory MPs would vote the same way if there was a referendum now)."
- "One source close to David Cameron is convinced that UKIP will top the poll in the 2014 Euro Elections. They came second in share of the (low turnout) vote last time round. The source said No.10 was braced for full-scale panic in the Party at that point."