American politicians have been worrying about China again – and so they should. The trouble is they've been worrying about China in the wrong way. While various Republican and Democrat bigwigs have been using their respective national conventions to claim that only they can save America from being overhauled by the once and future superpower across the Pacific, the real threat is not Chinese expansion, but a Chinese implosion.
It is a case that’s well-made by Minxin Pei in an article for Foreign Policy. America, he argues, has a history of fretting about competitors which then promptly crash out of the race:
China, Pei argues, is beset by all manner of immediate problems – “a persistent slowdown of economic growth, a glut of unsold goods, rising bad bank loans, a bursting real estate bubble, and a vicious power struggle at the top,” but also various underlying weaknesses:
Western fear of China, rather than for China, could backfire:
Of course, China has enormous underlying strengths as well as weaknesses, but it will need all of those resources just to hold itself together.
The fact that the current Chinese system of government may not last forever is a point that’s worth bearing in mind. Though there’s never been any shortage of western commentators ready to talk down the future prospects of liberal democracy, the thing that more usually surprises our foreign policy establishments is the collapse of authoritarian systems.
Whether in Latin America, the Soviet Bloc or the Middle East, the so-called experts always seem to be startled when tyrants fall. Perhaps they should remember what Winston Churchill had to say on the matter: