Voters of all persuasions were downbeat about the state of the country and its immediate prospects: nearly two thirds in my 10,000-sample survey said they thought America was heading in the wrong direction.
For him and his team, the border will be a key priority. It could be the thing that propels them to the White House. In the last month alone, there were an estimated 300,000 illegal crossings across the southern border.
If you are an Atlanticist, a supporter of NATO, an ally of Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression, it would be truly extraordinary to support him over Biden.
As we vote by state, the national polling averages mean little. Drilling down to the swing states, it is crystal clear that if the election were held today, the former President would win a clear victory.
The best chance to beat Trump has been the same since the start of the contest: not via Nikki Haley, but through Ron DeSantis. Polls show he is the only candidate who can win Trump supporters as well as Trump sceptics.
Republican challengers are putting their own egos ahead of any coordinated effort to beat the former president, whilst any move against Biden are likely to come later, at the Democratic National Convention.
It looks like there is a deal to be done where the proposed $60 billion package is paired with major reform of America’s porous southern border.
Yet unlike insurgent parties in other countries, the Conservatives have time and again made themselves the party of a status quo that serves only the interests of older voters.
In domestic policy, we are headed for the real deal. Trump’s campaign staff have been briefing for months that, this time, deep state officials will not stand in their way.
The former lean towards the idea that American interests are best served by defending freedom and democracy around the world; the latter that US interests are best served by using our resources to improve life for ordinary Americans at home.
America is heading for one of the nastiest and most divisive elections in its modern history. It could very easily overshadow our own.
Our Atlantic partners might be a bit mad, but they still care – about their country, about its future. Polarisation has its many negative effects, but one of its positives is its ability to galvanise that passion.
No other Republican candidate currently looks likely to defeat the President – but his support is transactional, rather than rooted in any deep enthusiasm for his record.
Travelling around America, it is always interesting to meet and listen to Trump voters who are not straight out of the liberal conception of MAGA central casting.