Though it’s hard to see how he can find a seat before the next general election – given the hazardous nature of by-elections.
It comes with a stipulation of its own. My constituency estimates, to adapt my 2015 mantra, are a probability, not a prediction.
Labour do less well when figures are based on information about who has probably turned out to vote are used. The party’s turnout, then, will be crucial to the result.