Spoiler alert: the Rwanda policy will not stop the boats. I know this. You know this. One hopes Rishi Sunak knows this. The truth is that even if flights take off, the crossings will continue, and get worse under Labour, whether they cancel the scheme or not.
If the Rwanda scheme succeeds, it will be a personal vindication for Sunak. But it will also show that Parliament works. If not, however unfairly, it will be the Government voters blame for the failure.
The Prime Minister has confirmed the Rwanda scheme can be made operational within three months if the Rwanda bill is passed into law tonight.
The Prime Minister adds that there will be a “regular rhythm of multiple flights every month over the summer and beyond until the boats are stopped”.
New research for British Future finds a broad consensus that if you want to deem Rwanda safe, you first have to check that it is.
The Law Society believes that the Rwanda Bill remains, at best, seriously ill-advised and, at worst, an affront to British constitutional principles. However, the revisions to it go some way in reducing its negative impact on the rule of law and our balance of powers.
He refuses a bet about whether the flights will start before the General Election, but says they will help to stop the ‘trade in human misery’.
The sovereignty of Parliament, as the representative of the people, has been eroded, and power handed to an increasingly assertive bureaucracy.
Returns agreements arguably have a bigger role to play; speedier processing is also part of the answer. But to pretend that deterrence plays no part in people’s calculations is silly.
Research by the Refugee Council finds that, far from acting as a deterrent, the Rwanda plan is likely to result in people taking journeys that are even more dangerous and will drive vulnerable people underground.
However, the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee’s demand for a mere Commons vote on every treaty is a poor substitute for the real, much less fashionable solution.
In the previous five elections, the size of the shift in the polling gap between election day and six months before has been between six per cent and 12 per cent towards the Conservatives.
P.S: A poll that compared Sunak’s performance against Sir Keir to, say, Kemi Badenoch’s, Penny Mordaunt’s and James Cleverly’s might tell us something worth knowing. This morning’s nugatory exercise does not.
The Conservatives need first to address a real perception problem: voters in these seats are twice as likely to say they associate the words ‘divided’ and ‘uncaring’ with the Tories than with Labour.