We asked voters how likely they thought various outcomes were under a Conservative government, and under a Labour government, Only two things were thought more likely to happen than not in both scenarios: ‘higher taxes for people like me’ and ‘a new financial crisis’.
Immigration is currently the third most important issue for all voters and the second most important for the people who voted Tory in 2019 – the people Rishi Sunak must win back if he is to have any chance of retaining power.
Whilst the polling presents a mixed picture overall, the survey is once again broadly in line with professional pollsters.
Nonetheless, MPs need to act now, before his toxicity with voters taints their perceptions of the Party as a whole.
Though it is early days, events in Ukraine may have reduced the public’s blame for the government for a decline in living standards.
Our polling suggests that the dissenters’ take on events is seen as deeply eccentric by Tory voters.
Most obviously, this complicates their Net Zero strategy; you would have expected fiscal policy increasingly to have rebalanced towards green taxes.
Falling behind Labour will do nothing for the Tory mood, but there are a huge number of possible explanations for a narrowing in the polls.
Most of the media coverage has been on the survey’s woke and anti-woke findings, but there was another important discovery.
I don’t think it will lead to a serious drop in support – but officers will likely not have the same benefit of the doubt after the next such incident.
Age verification, relevant technology – both can tackled through the Digital Economy Act. Which is what the public wants.
As a Party, we should hold out a helping hand to all those who still face the difficulties of daily life – who still cannot be their authentic selves.
At the last election strong early poll leads seduced them into shifting resources from marginals into far more hostile territory, with disastrous results.
Their MRP projection has the Scottish Nationalists picking up several seats, often by narrow margins, which would surprise those on the ground.
The first in my series of regular 2024 focus groups included those who put their chances of repeating their 2019 Conservative vote at 3 to 5 out of 10, on the reasoning that if anyone is going to bolster the party’s poll numbers, it will be them.