Starmer’s government was already struggling to articulate a coherent economic vision before the crisis; the renewed inflationary pressure now arrives like a second wave before the first has receded. Higher prices strained public finances, renewed pressure on wage settlements.
The word from many of the more senior Conservative Party officials campaigning across the country is that in some areas the loses could be pretty bad, but in others – London gets mentioned a lot – there could be brighter news.
My latest poll looks at the Iran crisis, including Britain’s role and Keir Starmer’s handling of it, whether and how the state should subsidise energy , Shabana Mahmood’s changes to indefinite leave to remain, the North Sea, support for Green policies, and Zack Polanski’s past.
Northern Ireland demonstrates what happens when identity becomes the primary organising principle of politics. Compromise becomes betrayal, opponents become enemies, and institutions are forced to manage division rather than bridge it.
There’s a bigger picture here, beyond Trump hatred. The hard reality is that Britain, in the eyes of our Middle East allies, has appeared to be a fair-weather friend. Iran is the latest crisis to expose our Prime Minister’s inadequacies. I suspect it won’t be the last.
There’s a shift in the debate, for those in Reform and Conservatives, who are willing to have it. More are, and mercifully without the wearisome ‘screaming’ at each other that marked the start of hostilities. It’s not a deal, it might mark a ceasefire.
Leaving the IRGC somewhat to its own devices in Britain makes a mockery of our country and puts real people’s lives in danger. The government must either proscribe what they can now and legislate fast for the rest, or explain their cowardice to the public.
With Holyrood elections just over six weeks away, my latest polling looks at Scottish public opinion towards the SNP government’s record, the parties and leaders, the independence debate, and the issues that will shape the outcome in May
The Church of England has adopted a kind of ecclesiastical Starmerism – doing much to win over those with little interest in it, and little to keep those who have been its demographic. As a shadow for Starmer’s 12 per cent approval, the Church enjoys its 2 per cent attendance.
We’ve been asking, what is the state of the left-of-centre voting coalition under the biggest Labour majority for nearly 30 years? With Reform ahead in the polls, can the left mobilise to keep the right out of office? It might be trickier than some imagine.
He says Cyprus has been left undefended because Keir Starmer and the Government “showed no foresight whatsoever”.
My latest polling looks at preferred coalitions, tactical voting, which parties have momentum, whether Reform UK are like the Conservatives , whether Keir Starmer should resign, and which Labour leadership contender would make the best PM.
If politics continues to descend into ever narrower identity politics and escalating grievance, the fragmentation of our party system will accelerate. The risk is of winning individual battles, but ultimately losing the war for the soul and cohesion of our country.
Last month in Birmingham we conducted focus groups among people who will play a decisive part in the next election in constituencies around the country, as they did in the Gorton and Denton by-election: Muslim voters who backed Labour in 2024.
Voters do not judge us by our ideological purity, they judge us by whether the bins are collected, the schools are improving, and the state of the local high street and economy. The success of the Party at general elections is built on local Conservative politicians achieving this.