The swing was a below average by-election one to an opposition party, and about half the swing to the party that the national polls are showing.
It was May’s best conference speech as Conservative leader. But her One Nation pitch could be too late to save her.
A catspaw of Osborne? A competitor to Policy Exchange? A resource for a modernising leadership candidate? The truth is more subtle and interesting.
A lot on Brexit; not much elsewhere. The lack of a majority leaves the Prime Minister exposed – whatever may happen with the DUP.
Even in an age where institutional attachments run shallow, too many young people are coming to share a deep-seating dislike of our Party.
The Prime Minister’s manifesto will have its flaws, but she has grasped the implications of Brexit more surely than any other senior politician.
Gender, race and sexuality dominated the early phases of Tory modernisation. The Prime Minister is now scaling the most challenging peak: class.
Nick Timothy is from this Birmingham seat, which could go blue if anyone can be bothered to vote.
The sixth piece in a ConHome series this week on the Prime Minister’s Reset Moment – and what should follow from it.