The number and proportion of those who say they don’t know who to vote for suggests that a leadership election soon would be wide open.
Would either or both of them have a strong enough base among Conservative MPs to make it to the membership stage?
If having a base among MPs and members makes a candidate, the Foreign Secretary is a very strong one indeed in the event of an election.
He is so close to Mordaunt and Truss as to make no difference, and is well placed in the event of a contest.
This is not at all a bad show from a rising star – and panel members clearly like the cut of her jib.
It may be game and even set against the Chancellor, but it isn’t match yet and this now middling performer remains a contender.
The 25 per cent don’t know score in a contest between Baker and Truss represents roughly the strength of the centre-left of the Party.
It may not be surprising that two One-Nationish potential leadership candidates are bottom of our survey. But it’s worth reading the small print.
The former Health Secretary may get into a final leadership election round, but if our survey is right he has way to go.
Are their ratings lower because they won’t tell the Prime Minister that he would do best to quit now?
Were there to be a leadership election tomorrow, it looks to be wide open. Which is why we will publish play-off ballots tomorrow.
Grassroots confidence is at its lowest level of this parliament so far.
And 41 per cent say they shouldn’t. We’ve had over a thousand replies in less than a day – the highest return yet this year.
Any Party member can join the panel that returns the survey by sending a copy of their membership certificate to news@conservativehome.com.