Obviously the membership don’t set the strategy. But one wonders whether the Party might find it challenging to redeploy activists from seats that it (and only it) officially deems ‘safe’ to campaign in its fantasy marginals.
According to YouGov, the Party commands a plurality of voters only among the over 70s. As far as voting intention is concerned, the Conservative Party is literally dying on its feet.
The author recalls the high hopes with which Blair entered power in 1997, and the extreme difficulty of devising a viable European policy.
Labour have found two ways of circumventing Hunt’s spending trap: first, to ignore it, and, second, to reduce pressure on the public finances through optimistic promises of economic growth.
As his options narrow, Sunak has little choice but to get back to first principles, which would be the right course anyway.
Blair won the leadership of the Labour Party confronting left wingers, and promising to take the party to the centre ground. In contrast, Starmer won the leadership promising a hard-left agenda.
He cannot be blamed for his political colleagues’ personal affairs. But making this speech revealed serious political naivete, and the effect was catastrophic on Conservative credibility.
Even amidst dire polling for the Tories nationally, nobody seems to think a 1997-style wipeout is on the table in Scotland.
“Because all the reforms you guys passed already have panned out really well over the past 20 years, haven’t they.”
Gordon Brown entered the Treasury with low inflation, falling unemployment, steady growth, and shrinking taxes and spending. Rachel Reeves would not be so lucky – nor will the Chancellor, if we win the election.
To avoid a 1997-style wipe-out, the aim is to imitate the strategy of John Major’s remarkable victory from five years earlier.
It really worries me when coming elections are discussed only in terms of the future of the party leadership.
It’s a contest between Sunderland and Newcastle. But even if Labour does badly in early results, how much will that tell us?
Jon Davis and John Rentoul’s new book contains valuable material, but cannot efface Iraq, or the former Prime Minister’s self-righteousness.