The Conservatives remain on course to win a majority in the general election, according to new figures from the Ashcroft Model. Our “combined probabilistic model”, which calculates the sum of each party’s win chances in all the seats in which it is standing, estimates 357 Tory seats, or a potential majority of 64 (up four from the previous update published last Friday). However, this central estimate, based on an update survey conducted over the weekend, combines the data from three different turnout scenarios: including all those who currently say they will vote on Thursday (giving a Conservative majority of 70); including all those who say they voted in the EU referendum (a Conservative majority of 48); and assuming turnout matches that of the 2015 election (a Conservative majority of 78).
As always, it is important to emphasise that the Ashcroft Model deals with probabilities not predictions, meaning the actual result may well fall either side of these estimates. The range of probabilities in each turnout scenario is shown below. In the 2015 turnout scenario, for example, the model estimates that the greatest probability is a majority between 60 and 79 (34.8 per cent), followed by a majority of 80 to 99 (27.1 per cent); it also finds a 22.4 per cent probability of a Conservative majority over 100. The higher turnout scenarios, meanwhile, estimate a lower range of majorities.
Click here to see the Ashcroft Model’s range of potential majorities, and explore the estimated state of play in your constituency.