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UKIP glass

Dr Robert Ford of the University of Manchester and Dr Matthew Goodwin of the University of Nottingham are the authors of Revolt on the Right.

In our recent book, Revolt on the Right, we compiled a list of the most demographically receptive seats in the country for UKIP. This allowed us to rank all seats according to how favourable their populations are for UKIP, using the most recent census data.

UKIP’s ideal seats share key characteristics: they have lots of ‘left behind’ voters who we also know from our research are the most receptive to UKIP and its policies. These seats also have very low numbers of voters who tend to remain resistant to UKIP, including university graduates, ethnic minorities and people in professional and economically secure occupations.  This is a useful first exercise in filtering through all seats to find those where if UKIP stood a candidate and knocked on doors they would probably find lots of receptive voters.

Clearly, we are not saying that UKIP will enjoy strong support in all of these seats. It might be that they do not target these seats, or the local Conservative MP has a formidable majority that makes a Ukip insurgency unlikely. In order to find seats that UKIP actually has a chance of winning, you would need to look at both demography and the local political context, such as whether the vote is split across three parties, whether UKIP is targeting the seat and has been recruiting support through local elections.

Take Louth and Horncastle as an example. This is the fifth most UKIP-friendly seat in the country. But it will be incredibly difficult for UKIP to win the seat because of the very large Conservative majority (of almost 14,000). The departure of Sir Peter Tapsell will still make this fight interesting, but even still the seat imposes some obvious barriers for an insurgent party. Alternatively, look at Clacton. This was already the most favourable seat in the country for UKIP before Douglas Carswell defected. Now UKIP has the perfect storm: ideal demography and ideal politics.

So, keeping this important caveat in mind, here are the Top 100 most UKIP-friendly Conservative-held seats in the country:

Seat Region Con Majority Ukip 2010
Clacton Eastern 12,068
Boston & Skegness East Midlands 12,426 9.5
Great Yarmouth Eastern 4,276 4.8
Waveney Eastern 769 5.2
Louth & Horncastle East Midlands 13,871 4.3
Amber Valley East Midlands 536 2
North East Cambridgeshire Eastern 16,425 5.7
Cleethorpes Yorkshire 4,298 7.1
South Holland & the Deepings East Midlands 21,880 6.5
Cannock Chase West Midlands 3,195 3.5
North West Norfolk Eastern 14,810 3.9
Dudley South West Midlands 3,856 8.2
Brigg and Goole Yorkshire 5,147 4
Castle Point Eastern 7,632
South West Norfolk Eastern 13,140 6.2
Erewash East Midlands 2,501 1.8
Carlisle North West 853 2.3
North Warwickshire West Midlands 54 2.8
Sherwood East Midlands 214 3
Yorkshire East Yorkshire 13,486 4.2
Scarborough and Whitby Yorkshire 8,130 3
Bridgwater and West Somerset South West 9,249 4.8
North Thanet South East 13,528 6.5
Sittingbourne and Sheppey South East 12,383 5.4
Camborne and Redruth South West 66 5.1
Wyre Forest West Midlands 2,643 2.9
Morcambe and Lunesdale North West 866 4.2
Staffordshire Moorlands West Midlands 6,689 8.2
Dover South East 5,274 3.5
Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales 4,605 2.3
Isle of Wight South East 10,527 3.5
Norwich North Eastern 3,901 4.4
Aldridge-Brownhills West Midlands 15,256
Montgomeryshire Wales 1,184 3.3
Mid Norfolk Eastern 13,856 5.5
Havant South East 12,160 5.9
Camarthen West & S Pembrokeshire Wales 3,423 2.8
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton South East 13,063 6.5
South Basildon & East Thurrock Eastern 5,772 5.9
Tamworth West Midlands 6,090 4.9
Halesowen & Rowley Regis West Midlands 2,023 6.4
Torridge & West Devon South West 2,957 5.5
Thanet South South East 7,617 5.5
Clwyd West Wales 6,419 2.3
Tiverton & Honiton South West 9,320 6
Nuneaton West Midlands 2,069 0
Forest of Dean South West 11,064 5.2
Aberconwy Wales 3,398 2.1
Penrith and the Border North West 11,241 2.8
North West Leicestershire East Midlands 7,511 2.2
Christchurch South West 15,410 8.5
Gainsborough East Midlands 10,559 4.2
Newton Abbot South West 523 6.4
Hastings and Rye South East 1,993 2.8
South Dorset South West 7,443 4
Broadland Eastern 7,292 4.5
Stourbridge West Midlands 5,164 4.5
North Shropshire West Midlands 15,828 4.7
Thirsk and Malton Yorkshire 11,281 6.6
South East Cornwall South West 3,220 6.2
Weston-Super-Mare South West 2,691 2.7
Hereford & South Herefordshire West Midlands 2,481 3.4
Bosworth East Midlands 5,032 2
Totnes South West 4,927 6
Ludlow West Midlands 9,749 4.4
Folkestone and Hythe South East 10,122 4.6
Suffolk Coastal Eastern 9,128 5.7
Crewe and Nantwich North West 6,046 2.8
Wellingborough East Midlands 11,787 3.2
Berverley & Holderness Yorkshire 12,987 3.5
Grantham & Stamford East Midlands 14,826 3
Burton West Midlands 6,304 2.9
Chatham and Aylesford South East 13.9 3
Gosport South East 14,413 3.2
Portsmouth North South East 7,289 4.1
Bexhill and Battle South East 12,880 0
Rossendale and Darwen North West 4,493 3.4
South Suffolk Eastern 8,689 7.1
Harlow (Essex) South East 4,925 3.6
Sleaford and North Hykeham East Midlands 19,905 3.6
Rochford and Southend East Eastern 11,050 5.8
New Forest West South East 16,896 5.9
Redditch West Midlands 5,821 3.4
Kingswood South West 2,445 3.2
Harwich and North Essex Eastern 11,447 5.2
New Forest East South East 11,307 5
South West Wiltshire South West 10,367 5.5
Lincoln East Midlands 1,058 2.2
South Staffordshire West Midlands 16,590 5.5
Braintree Eastern 16,121 5
Kettering East Midlands 9,094
West Suffolk Eastern 13,050 6.4
East Worthing & Shoreham South East 11,105 6.2
Weaver Vale North West 991 2.3
Basildon & Billericay Eastern 12,398 3.8
North Herefordshire West Midlands 9,887 5.7
Rayleigh and Wickford Eastern 22,338 4.2
South Derbyshire East Midlands 7,128 2.4
Worthing West South East 11,729 6
South Norfolk Eastern 10,940 4.2

 

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