There are some things which this
Conservative-led administration is doing, which have the strong support of
Conservative Party members and much of the country. Michael Gove’s School Reforms, which should
lead to a majority of secondary schools becoming independent, as either
Academies or Free Schools, ought to improve educational standards and
achievements substantially over the coming years. In addition, Ken Baker’s Technical College
initiative looks like also being a dramatic success, both in providing young
people with skills which will lead to apprenticeships and employment; and in
achieving surprisingly good wider educational attainment for many of those who
fail in mainstream schools. The
Apprenticeship bandwagon is also rolling extremely well, helping young people
to gain employable skills and a job.
Amazingly, the private sector has also created over a million new jobs
and, after allowing for the sharp decline in North Sea oil production, looks to
have grown by 4%-5% since 2010. Philip
Hammond is also on top at the Ministry of Defence, and is sorting out the
appalling legacy of procurement waste.
In too many other important areas,
however, this Government is manifestly not following the policies Conservative
supporters would wish. Taxes have risen,
and not fallen, and are still rising.
Public Sector pay has risen more than Private Sector pay and not been
frozen as promised. Excessive Regulation
has not been reined back.
Family-friendly policies are not being pursued and the pledge to raise
the IHT limit to £1m has just been abandoned.
While the Prime Minister’s speech on Britain’s relationship with Europe
was statesman-like and well received, and the never ending increase in the
Brussels budget has been contained, little or nothing has actually been
achieved as yet, in terms of extricating the UK from, for example, ever
advancing Brussels Regulations, or the huge cost of the CAP.
Worst of all, the very people whom
a Conservative-led Government should be supporting – the aspiring middle
classes – are being squeezed financially, with pay falling behind inflation and
their taxes rising; and where Public Sector, inflation linked, final salary
schemes are being underwritten (at a costly likely to be £25bn p.a. to the tax
payer by 2017), Private Sector pensions continue to dwindle in value.
Not surprisingly, membership of the
Conservative Party continues to fall.
Some members of the Government appear to hold the view that it is
politically positive to alienate our supporters, as when it comes to the crunch
of an Election, historic Conservative supporters/members will, even if
reluctantly, vote Conservative, because the other 2 Parties are so much
worse; – and policies which alienate
Conservative supporters, will attract votes from others?
Boris Johnson’s electoral success
would, however, appear to have demonstrated the opposite. This sort of thinking also forgets the
European Elections. If UKIP plays its
cards well – which it may or may not do – it has the potential to attract
millions of Conservative voters, to register a protest vote next Summer. This clearly happened in a modest way at the
last Euro-elections, but the potential is now far greater. Hopefully, the Conservative Candidate for
Eastleigh, who is fighting her campaign on the very issues which most inherent
Conservatives support, will win the by-election. It seems to me unwise of UKIP to be fielding
a candidate in this particular by-election.
They would increase their chances of a dramatic European election
victory if they did not run a candidate in Eastleigh but told their supporters
to vote, in this instance, for the Conservative Candidate. This would give them a platform where they
could argue that they enabled the “right sort” of Euro-sceptic, Conservative
Candidate, to win the by-election.
This Conservative-led Government
appears, also, to have overlooked the fact that of the order of 70% of those
who now vote in elections, are over 50, with the views and values which broadly
reflect their age group. Also, the
Conservatives have only won a general election since women had the vote, when a
majority of women have voted Conservative.
The views and judgement of women over 50 are a key factor in determining election results, where this Government does not appear to be very popular with
women. Perhaps alienating your natural
supporters does not look to be a very sensible strategy for winning elections.