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Pater RichardRichard Pater is Director of BICOM [British Israel Communications and Research Centre].  Follow Richard on Twitter.

In all likelihood, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-Israel Beteinu party will win next Tuesday’s
election and be asked to form the next government.   The left and
centre left parties have failed to unite behind a realistic prime ministerial
candidate.  Furthermore, due to the dynamic of the Israeli political
system, even if the left and right blocks come out close to even, the ultra-orthodox parties will once again hold the balance of power, and inevitably
endorse Netanyahu as Prime Minister when they are invited to the President’s
residence to make their recommendation. However, Likud-Beteinu may not have it all their
way.                   

This is because the vote could
be closer than most of the opinion polls have been predicting,
as around 18% (21 seats out of 120) are still undecided.  Following the
results, the real (fun) horse trading begins. With Netanyahu’s Likud–Beteinu
joint list expected to be the largest party, it will receive upward of 35 seats,
(although not as much as the 42 the joint list has today or the prediction of
45+ when the merger was announced), and will need thus to bring in coalition
partners to pass the golden 61 threshold. 

The Prime
Minister has two broad choices – to remain with his ‘natural partners’: the ultra
–orthodox parties and the pro-settler right wing.  Or to veer to the left,
and peel off one or two centrist parties to give the government more
balance.  He could of course choose a third option by blurring the above
distinction and accommodate competing interests in the same government. 
On top of the consternation of the parties is an added layer of intrigue; who
will take the most important jobs within the Cabinet? 

One person now
unlikely to be in it is the Prime Minister’s partner and leader of
Yisrael Beteinu – Avigdor Lieberman.  When their merger was announced the
latter was apparently offered his choice of the three most senior cabinet
positions: Foreign Affairs (in which he served in the outgoing government), Defence and
Finance.  Since that deal, Lieberman has resigned his post as Foreign Minister
as he is facing charges on breach of trust.  At this stage, he cannot
serve as a Minister, but until he is indicted he can continue to serve as a
member of parliament.  He will most likely take a role as head of the
foreign affairs and defence committee in parliament.   Here are some
of the characters who could feature in the next government.  


The Bayit
Yehudi (Jewish Home) party is lead by the charismatic Naftali Bennett.  He
served in one of the elite infantry units in the IDF, then went on make
millions in a hi-tech start up company.  Although a darling of the
settlers, policy-wise he is more concerned with cost of living and equality of
the military draft.  Expect him to take a senior domestic portfolio in the
next cabinet.  Another party leader, Yair Lapid, the former news anchor and
chat show host also entered politics last year.  His party, Yesh Atid’s
("There is a future)" shares similar domestic concerns, and could also be in line
for a cabinet portfolio.  Lapid’s dream job would be Minister of
Education, but if his party was offered a different portfolio he would not
necessarily take it himself if someone else in his party was more
qualified.     

The favourite for
the Minister of Defence is a former chief of staff of the Defence forces and the outgoing Minister for
Strategic Affairs, Moshe ‘Boogie’ Ya’alon.  Ya’alon is a security hawk, but
a pragmatist.  He talks of supporting the Oslo peace process at the time
he was a commander in the West Bank.  However, he grew cynical as he watched the
strengthening of terror cells.  Ya’alon may feel the envy of other senior
Likud figures who will one day compete for the party leadership and recognise
Ya’alon as a genuine contender.

If Netanyahu does lean centre (and they
pass the electoral threshold) he may look to appoint Kadima chairman – and another former chief of staff – Shaul Mofaz as Minister of Defence.  A month
ago this would have been considered a joke (some still do).  The Kadima
party has been decimated, but a well-crafted positive campaign has led to a
mini-revival in the polls.  The current Defence Minister Ehud Barak
remains an outside bet to remain in the post, even though he announced his
retirement from politics in December.  A careful reading of his statement
suggests he has left room to be called back into the cabinet as a professional
minister.  His most significant achievement in the last government was
building exceptionally good relations with US Defence officials.  It will
be crucial that the new defence minister or another senior minister takes on
the role of close coordination with Washington. 

Gidon Saar, the
outgoing Minister for Education is another potential future Likud leader and
even prime minister.  He, too, will expect a promotion after finishing in
top place in the Likud primaries two elections running.  As Minister for
Education, he presided over a dramatic improvement in Israel’s international
ranking in maths and science.  He could potentially serve as Israel’s next
Foreign Minister or Finance Minister.

Of course, the person who most
wants to be Foreign Minister (her old job in the Olmert government) is Tzipi
Livni.  She has said though she would only take the position if the
government’s guidelines matched her own ideological commitment rigorously to pursue final status negotiations with the Palestinians.  Her inclusion
would seem at odds with that of the Jewish Home party.

The Finance
portfolio is considered by some a poisoned chalice.  There is growing
concern that the incumbent government will face a large budget deficit. 
Aspiring politicians are rarely keen to be directly associated with tax hikes
and cuts in expenditure.  However the seniority and high profile of the
post means it is difficult to say no.    There is one theory
that Yuval Steinitz will continue in this capacity for another year. At which
time Ruby Rivlin, the Speaker of the Knessetm  hopes to be elected President.  Steinitz could then
take over as Speaker – and a clean, vindicated Lieberman take his place and
returns to the
cabinet.                       

Though we will of course need to
wait till next Wednesday and see exactly where the votes fall to have a better
understanding of who will form the government.

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