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Plenty of analyses have been published of how Conservative MPs intend to vote in the EU referendum, but as far as we know none of them have probed the breakdown of intentions between the payroll and non-payroll vote.

We publish below and elsewhere our own figures for both – and indeed our calculations overall. In relation to the latter, our motto is safety first: we are trying to stand on a sure floor rather than reach a speculative ceiling.

That isn’t to say anyone else’s estimate is wrong, or that our own calculations are always right. After all, people can change their view, polling day isn’t yet upon us, and we are dealing with “the most sophisticated electorate in the world”.

So we will update this list each weekday, at least for the time being, and seek to put MPs into the right category as more information comes in.

To date, we have 185 Tory MPs for Remain, and 129 for Leave.

Of the 185 for Remain, 90 are on the payroll and 95 are not.

Of the 129 for Leave, 32 are on the payroll and 97 are not.

Note how members of the 2015 intake are relatively wary of declaring.

At any rate, we are seeing a pattern emerge: on the EU, the Conservative Party is a pyramid.

At the narrow top (the payroll), support for Remain is greater than support for Leave.

At the broad bottom – among the Associations – support for Leave is much larger than support for Remain, if our own surveys and other soundings are anything to go by.

And in the squeezed middle (to borrow a phrase), backbench Tory MPs are more evenly divided. This opinion gap poses big challenges to the Party post-referendum.

Footnote: our definition of Payroll is Ministers plus PPS’s. There is no formal list of them that we can rely on to be absolutely up to date, but are doing the best we can to keep track.

There is a copy of this note at the head of our breakdown of the Remain figures.

– – –

PAYROLL

STEVE BARCLAY

ANDREW BINGHAM

JULIAN BRAZIER

CONOR BURNS

JAMES DUDDRIDGE

IAIN DUNCAN SMITH

GEORGE EUSTICE

MARK FRANCOIS

MICHAEL GOVE

CHRIS GRAYLING

JOHN HAYES

BORIS JOHNSON

GARETH JOHNSON

ANDREA LEADSOM

CHARLOTTE LESLIE

KWASI KWARTENG

PENNY MORDAUNT

ANNE-MARIE MORRIS

SHERYL MURRAY

MATTHEW OFFORD

PRITI PATEL

CHRISTOPHER PINCHER

MIKE PENNING

DOMINIC RAAB

HENRY SMITH

ANDREW STEPHENSON

IAIN STEWART

DESMOND SWAYNE

THERESA VILLIERS

JOHN WHITTINGDALE

JAMES WHARTON

HEATHER WHEELER

Backbench


Nigel Adams

Adam Afriyie

Lucy Allan

David Amess

Stuart Andrew

Richard Bacon

Steve Baker

John Baron

Henry Bellingham

Bob Blackman

Peter Bone

Victoria Borwick

Graham Brady

Andrew Bridgen

David Burrowes

Bill Cash

Maria Caulfield

Christopher Chope

James Cleverly

Geoffrey Clifton-Brown

Geoffrey Cox

Chris Davies

David Davies

James Davies

Mims Davies

Philip Davies

David Davis

Nadine Dorries

Steve Double

Richard Drax

Nigel Evans

Michael Fabricant

Suella Fernandes

Liam Fox

Richard Fuller

Marcus Fysh

Nus Ghani

Cheryl Gillan

Zac Goldsmith

James Gray

Chris Green

Rebecca Harris

Chris Heaton-Harris

Gordon Henderson

Philip Hollobone

Adam Holloway

Gerald Howarth

Stewart Jackson

Ranil Jayawardena

Bernard Jenkin

Andrea Jenkyns

David Jones

Daniel Kawczynski

Greg Knight

Edward Leigh

Julian Lewis

Peter Lilley

Jack Lopresti

Jonathan Lord

Tim Loughton

Karen Lumley

Craig Mackinlay

Anne Main

Kit Malthouse

Scott Mann

Paul Maynard

Jason McCartney

Karl McCartney

Stephen McPartland

Nigel Mills

Andrew Murrison

David Nuttall

Owen Paterson

Andrew Percy

Stephen Phillips

Tom Pursglove

Will Quince

John Redwood

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Laurence Robertson

Andrew Rosindell

Paul Scully

Royston Smith

Julian Sturdy

Rishi Sunak

Robert Syms

Derek Thomas

Craig Tracey

Anne-Marie Trevelyan

Andrew Turner

Martin Vickers

Charles Walker

David Warburton

Bill Wiggin

Mike Wood

William Wragg

Nadhim Zahawi

57 comments for: Europe. How Conservative MPs break down. Final Leave estimate – 129 Tory MPs, 32 on the payroll, 96 not.

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