Plenty of analyses have been published of how Conservative MPs intend to vote in the EU referendum, but as far as we know none of them have probed the breakdown of intentions between the payroll and non-payroll vote.
We publish below and elsewhere our own figures for both – and indeed our calculations overall. In relation to the latter, our motto is safety first: we are trying to stand on a sure floor rather than reach a speculative ceiling.
That isn’t to say anyone else’s estimate is wrong, or that our own calculations are always right. After all, people can change their view, polling day isn’t yet upon us, and we are dealing with “the most sophisticated electorate in the world”.
So we will update this list each weekday, at least for the time being, and seek to put MPs into the right category as more information comes in.
To date, we have 185 Tory MPs for Remain, and 129 for Leave.
Of the 185 for Remain, 90 are on the payroll and 95 are not.
Of the 129 for Leave, 32 are on the payroll and 97 are not.
Note how members of the 2015 intake are relatively wary of declaring.
At any rate, we are seeing a pattern emerge: on the EU, the Conservative Party is a pyramid.
At the narrow top (the payroll), support for Remain is greater than support for Leave.
At the broad bottom – among the Associations – support for Leave is much larger than support for Remain, if our own surveys and other soundings are anything to go by.
And in the squeezed middle (to borrow a phrase), backbench Tory MPs are more evenly divided. This opinion gap poses big challenges to the Party post-referendum.
Footnote: our definition of Payroll is Ministers plus PPS’s. There is no formal list of them that we can rely on to be absolutely up to date, but are doing the best we can to keep track.
There is a copy of this note at the head of our breakdown of the Remain figures.
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PAYROLL
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STEVE BARCLAY
ANDREW BINGHAM
JULIAN BRAZIER
CONOR BURNS
JAMES DUDDRIDGE
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IAIN DUNCAN SMITH
GEORGE EUSTICE
MARK FRANCOIS
MICHAEL GOVE
CHRIS GRAYLING
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JOHN HAYES
BORIS JOHNSON
GARETH JOHNSON
ANDREA LEADSOM
CHARLOTTE LESLIE
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KWASI KWARTENG
PENNY MORDAUNT
ANNE-MARIE MORRIS
SHERYL MURRAY
MATTHEW OFFORD
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PRITI PATEL
CHRISTOPHER PINCHER
MIKE PENNING
DOMINIC RAAB
HENRY SMITH
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ANDREW STEPHENSON
IAIN STEWART
DESMOND SWAYNE
THERESA VILLIERS
JOHN WHITTINGDALE
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JAMES WHARTON
HEATHER WHEELER
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Backbench
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Nigel Adams
Adam Afriyie
Lucy Allan
David Amess
Stuart Andrew
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Richard Bacon
Steve Baker
John Baron
Henry Bellingham
Bob Blackman
–
Peter Bone
Victoria Borwick
Graham Brady
Andrew Bridgen
David Burrowes
–
Bill Cash
Maria Caulfield
Christopher Chope
James Cleverly
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
–
Geoffrey Cox
Chris Davies
David Davies
James Davies
Mims Davies
–
Philip Davies
David Davis
Nadine Dorries
Steve Double
Richard Drax
–
Nigel Evans
Michael Fabricant
Suella Fernandes
Liam Fox
Richard Fuller
–
Marcus Fysh
Nus Ghani
Cheryl Gillan
Zac Goldsmith
James Gray
–
Chris Green
Rebecca Harris
Chris Heaton-Harris
Gordon Henderson
Philip Hollobone
–
Adam Holloway
Gerald Howarth
Stewart Jackson
Ranil Jayawardena
Bernard Jenkin
–
Andrea Jenkyns
David Jones
Daniel Kawczynski
Greg Knight
Edward Leigh
–
Julian Lewis
Peter Lilley
Jack Lopresti
Jonathan Lord
Tim Loughton
–
Karen Lumley
Craig Mackinlay
Anne Main
Kit Malthouse
Scott Mann
–
Paul Maynard
Jason McCartney
Karl McCartney
Stephen McPartland
Nigel Mills
–
Andrew Murrison
David Nuttall
Owen Paterson
Andrew Percy
Stephen Phillips
–
Tom Pursglove
Will Quince
John Redwood
Jacob Rees-Mogg
Laurence Robertson
–
Andrew Rosindell
Paul Scully
Royston Smith
Julian Sturdy
Rishi Sunak
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Robert Syms
Derek Thomas
Craig Tracey
Anne-Marie Trevelyan
Andrew Turner
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Martin Vickers
Charles Walker
David Warburton
Bill Wiggin
Mike Wood
–
William Wragg
Nadhim Zahawi