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EU FLag

Plenty of analyses have been published of how Conservative MPs intend to vote in the EU referendum, but as far as we know none of them have probed the breakdown of intentions between the payroll and non-payroll vote.

We publish below and elsewhere our own figures for both – and indeed our calculations overall.  In relation to the latter, our motto is safety first: we are trying to stand on a sure floor rather reach than a speculative ceiling.

That isn’t to say anyone else’s estimate is wrong, or that our own calculations are always right.  After all, people can change their view, polling day isn’t yet upon us, and we are dealing with “the most sophisticated electorate in the world”.

So we will update on each weekday, at least for the time being, and seek to put MPs in the right category as more information comes in.

To date, we have 185 Tory MPs for Remain, and 128 for Leave.

Of the 185 for Remain, 91 are on the payroll and 94 are not.

Of the 128 for Leave, 32 are on the payroll and 96 are not.

Note how members of the 2015 intake are relatively wary of declaring.

At any rate, we are seeing a pattern emerge: on the EU, the Conservative Party is a pyramid.

At the narrow top (the payroll), support for Remain is greater than support for Leave.

At the broad bottom – among the Associations – support for Leave is much larger than support for Remain, if our own surveys and other soundings are anything to go by.

And in the squeezed middle (to borrow a phrase), backbench Tory MPs are more evenly divided.  This opinion gap poses big challenges to the Party post-referendum.

Footnote: our definition of Payroll is Ministers plus PPS’s.  There is no formal list of them that we can rely on to be absolutely up to date, but are doing the best we can to keep track.

There is a copy of this note at the head of our breakdown of the Leave figures.

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FRONTBENCH

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HARRIET BALDWIN

GAVIN BARWELL

JAKE BERRY

NICK BOLES

KAREN BRADLEY

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STEVE BRINE

JAMES BROKENSHIRE

ROBERT BUCKLAND

ALISTAIR BURT

DAVID CAMERON

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ALUN CAIRNS

GREG CLARK

THÉRÈSE COFFEY

OLIVER COLVILE

STEPHEN CRABB

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CAROLINE DINENAGE

PHILIP DUNNE

MICHAEL ELLIS

JANE ELLISON

TOBIAS ELLWOOD

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CHARLIE ELPHICKE

GRAHAM EVANS

DAVID EVENNETT

MICHAEL FALLON

GEORGE FREEMAN

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MIKE FREER

DAVID GAUKE

NICK GIBB

JOHN GLEN

ROBERT GOODWILL

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HELEN GRANT

JUSTINE GREENING

ANDREW GRIFFITHS

BEN GUMMER

SAM GYIMAH

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ROB HALFON

PHILIP HAMMOND

MATT HANCOCK

GREG HANDS

MARK HARPER

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RICHARD HARRINGTON

DAMIAN HINDS

JEREMY HUNT

NICK HURD

MARGOT JAMES

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SAJID JAVID

ROBERT JENRICK

JO JOHNSON

ANDREW JONES

MARCUS JONES

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SIMON KIRBY

MARK LANCASTER

OLIVER LETWIN

BRANDON LEWIS

DAVID LIDINGTON

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THERESA MAY

PAUL MAYNARD

PATRICK MCLOUGHLIN

NICKY MORGAN

DAVID MORRIS

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JAMES MORRIS

DAVID MUNDELL

SARAH NEWTON

GUY OPPERMAN

GEORGE OSBORNE

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MARK PAWSEY

JOHN PENROSE

CLAIRE PERRY

AMBER RUDD

DAVID RUTLEY

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ANDREW SELOUS

ALOK SHARMA

ALEC SHELBROOKE

CHRIS SKIDMORE

CHLOE SMITH

-

JULIAN SMITH

ANNA SOUBRY

MARK SPENCER

RORY STEWART

MEL STRIDE

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HUGO SWIRE

EDWARD TIMPSON

ELIZABETH TRUSS

ED VAIZEY

SHAILESH VARA

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BEN WALLACE

CHRIS WHITE

CRAIG WHITTAKER

GAVIN WILLIAMSON

ROB WILSON

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JEREMY WRIGHT

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Backbench

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Peter Aldous

Heidi Allen

Edward Argar

Victoria Atkins

Guto Bebb

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James Berry

Richard Benyon

Paul Beresford

Nicola Blackwood

Peter Bottomley

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Simon Burns

Neil Carmichael

James Cartlidge

Alex Chalk

Jo Churchill

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Kenneth Clarke

Damian Collins

Alberto Costa

Byron Davies

Jonathan Djanogly

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Michelle Donelan

Oliver Dowden

Flick Drummond

Alan Duncan

Mark Field

-

Kevin Foster

Luzy Frazer

Roger Gale

Mark Garnier

Edward Garnier

-

Richard Graham

Damian Green

Dominic Grieve

Luke Hall

Stephen Hammond

-

Alan Haselhurst

Simon Hart

Oliver Heald

James Heappey

Peter Heaton-Jones

-

Nick Herbert

Simon Hoare

George Hollingbery

Kevin Hollinrake

Kris Hopkins

-

John Howell

Ben Howlett

Nigel Huddleston

Seema Kennedy

Julian Knight

-

Phillip Lee

Jeremy Lefroy

David Mackintosh

Alan Mak

Tania Mathias

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Mark Menzies

Johnny Mercer

Maria Miller

Amanda Milling

Andrew Mitchell

-

Wendy Morton

David Mowat

Bob Neill

Neil Parish

Chris Philp

-

Eric Pickles

Dan Poulter

Rebecca Pow

Victoria Prentis

Mark Prisk

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Mark Pritchard

Jeremy Quin

Mary Robinson

Antoinette Sandbach

Grant Shapps

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Keith Simpson

Nicholas Soames

Amanda Solloway

Julian Smith

Caroline Spelman

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John Stevenson

Gary Streeter

Graham Stuart

Maggie Throup

Kelly Tolhurst

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David Tredinnick

Tom Tugendhat

Andre Tyrie

Robin Walker

Matt Warman

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Angela Watkinson

Helen Whately

Craig Williams

Sarah Wollaston

80 comments for: Europe. How Conservative MPs break down. Final Remain estimate – 185 Tory MPs, 91 on the payroll, 94 not.

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