Plenty of analyses have been published of how Conservative MPs intend to vote in the EU referendum, but as far as we know none of them have probed the breakdown of intentions between the payroll and non-payroll vote.
We publish below and elsewhere our own figures for both – and indeed our calculations overall. In relation to the latter, our motto is safety first: we are trying to stand on a sure floor rather reach than a speculative ceiling.
That isn’t to say anyone else’s estimate is wrong, or that our own calculations are always right. After all, people can change their view, polling day isn’t yet upon us, and we are dealing with “the most sophisticated electorate in the world”.
So we will update on each weekday, at least for the time being, and seek to put MPs in the right category as more information comes in.
To date, we have 185 Tory MPs for Remain, and 128 for Leave.
Of the 185 for Remain, 91 are on the payroll and 94 are not.
Of the 128 for Leave, 32 are on the payroll and 96 are not.
Note how members of the 2015 intake are relatively wary of declaring.
At any rate, we are seeing a pattern emerge: on the EU, the Conservative Party is a pyramid.
At the narrow top (the payroll), support for Remain is greater than support for Leave.
At the broad bottom – among the Associations – support for Leave is much larger than support for Remain, if our own surveys and other soundings are anything to go by.
And in the squeezed middle (to borrow a phrase), backbench Tory MPs are more evenly divided. This opinion gap poses big challenges to the Party post-referendum.
Footnote: our definition of Payroll is Ministers plus PPS’s. There is no formal list of them that we can rely on to be absolutely up to date, but are doing the best we can to keep track.
There is a copy of this note at the head of our breakdown of the Leave figures.
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FRONTBENCH
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HARRIET BALDWIN
GAVIN BARWELL
JAKE BERRY
NICK BOLES
KAREN BRADLEY
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STEVE BRINE
JAMES BROKENSHIRE
ROBERT BUCKLAND
ALISTAIR BURT
DAVID CAMERON
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ALUN CAIRNS
GREG CLARK
THÉRÈSE COFFEY
OLIVER COLVILE
STEPHEN CRABB
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CAROLINE DINENAGE
PHILIP DUNNE
MICHAEL ELLIS
JANE ELLISON
TOBIAS ELLWOOD
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CHARLIE ELPHICKE
GRAHAM EVANS
DAVID EVENNETT
MICHAEL FALLON
GEORGE FREEMAN
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MIKE FREER
DAVID GAUKE
NICK GIBB
JOHN GLEN
ROBERT GOODWILL
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HELEN GRANT
JUSTINE GREENING
ANDREW GRIFFITHS
BEN GUMMER
SAM GYIMAH
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ROB HALFON
PHILIP HAMMOND
MATT HANCOCK
GREG HANDS
MARK HARPER
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RICHARD HARRINGTON
DAMIAN HINDS
JEREMY HUNT
NICK HURD
MARGOT JAMES
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SAJID JAVID
ROBERT JENRICK
JO JOHNSON
ANDREW JONES
MARCUS JONES
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SIMON KIRBY
MARK LANCASTER
OLIVER LETWIN
BRANDON LEWIS
DAVID LIDINGTON
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THERESA MAY
PAUL MAYNARD
PATRICK MCLOUGHLIN
NICKY MORGAN
DAVID MORRIS
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JAMES MORRIS
DAVID MUNDELL
SARAH NEWTON
GUY OPPERMAN
GEORGE OSBORNE
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MARK PAWSEY
JOHN PENROSE
CLAIRE PERRY
AMBER RUDD
DAVID RUTLEY
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ANDREW SELOUS
ALOK SHARMA
ALEC SHELBROOKE
CHRIS SKIDMORE
CHLOE SMITH
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JULIAN SMITH
ANNA SOUBRY
MARK SPENCER
RORY STEWART
MEL STRIDE
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HUGO SWIRE
EDWARD TIMPSON
ELIZABETH TRUSS
ED VAIZEY
SHAILESH VARA
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BEN WALLACE
CHRIS WHITE
CRAIG WHITTAKER
GAVIN WILLIAMSON
ROB WILSON
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JEREMY WRIGHT
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Backbench
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Peter Aldous
Heidi Allen
Edward Argar
Victoria Atkins
Guto Bebb
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James Berry
Richard Benyon
Paul Beresford
Nicola Blackwood
Peter Bottomley
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Simon Burns
Neil Carmichael
James Cartlidge
Alex Chalk
Jo Churchill
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Kenneth Clarke
Damian Collins
Alberto Costa
Byron Davies
Jonathan Djanogly
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Michelle Donelan
Oliver Dowden
Flick Drummond
Alan Duncan
Mark Field
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Kevin Foster
Luzy Frazer
Roger Gale
Mark Garnier
Edward Garnier
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Richard Graham
Damian Green
Dominic Grieve
Luke Hall
Stephen Hammond
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Alan Haselhurst
Simon Hart
Oliver Heald
James Heappey
Peter Heaton-Jones
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Nick Herbert
Simon Hoare
George Hollingbery
Kevin Hollinrake
Kris Hopkins
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John Howell
Ben Howlett
Nigel Huddleston
Seema Kennedy
Julian Knight
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Phillip Lee
Jeremy Lefroy
David Mackintosh
Alan Mak
Tania Mathias
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Mark Menzies
Johnny Mercer
Maria Miller
Amanda Milling
Andrew Mitchell
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Wendy Morton
David Mowat
Bob Neill
Neil Parish
Chris Philp
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Eric Pickles
Dan Poulter
Rebecca Pow
Victoria Prentis
Mark Prisk
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Mark Pritchard
Jeremy Quin
Mary Robinson
Antoinette Sandbach
Grant Shapps
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Keith Simpson
Nicholas Soames
Amanda Solloway
Julian Smith
Caroline Spelman
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John Stevenson
Gary Streeter
Graham Stuart
Maggie Throup
Kelly Tolhurst
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David Tredinnick
Tom Tugendhat
Andre Tyrie
Robin Walker
Matt Warman
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Angela Watkinson
Helen Whately
Craig Williams
Sarah Wollaston