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By Tim Montgomerie
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Gladiators
When Tory MPs are most depressed with the failings and compromises of coalition government they comfort themselves with the thought that it is hurting the Liberal Democrats much more than it is hurting Conservatives. The Lib Dems are the bindweed of British politics. Once they've invaded territory they are hard to get rid of but the next election is our best opportunity in a generation to significantly cut their numbers. While they are down on the floor we shouldn't show mercy. We must finish them off.

The task may not be as easy as some think. The opinion polls are deceptive. Some surveys show Britain's third party as low as 7%. Don't believe them. The evidence from Lord Ashcroft's polling in marginal seats and Rob Hayward's studies of council election results is that local reputations of Lib Dem MPs and the admirable pavement politics of Lib Dem activists will mean that they will significantly out-perform their national poll rating. Nonetheless Lib Dems are likely to be weaker than for a long time. Con HQ are likely to be reluctant to pour resources into LibCon fights for fear of upsetting relations inside Coalition. The 10mph Tory campaign in the Oldham East by-election was an early sign of this.


ConHome asks for your help in looking out for other signs that CCHQ is not investing in the LibCon fights that will be essential to secure a Tory majority. The boundary review may get us close to a majority. Winning ten or more Lib Dem held seats will get us close to a small working majority. This is the first time for many, many years that it will be easier to win Lib Dem seats than Labour seats.

Within three months of the boundary review being finalised CCHQ must select Conservative candidates in Lib Dem marginals. We will also relaunch ConHome's Yellow to Blue fundraising campaign that during the last General Election raised over £12,000 for Tory candidates fighting Liberal Democrats. The online tools that allowed us to do this do not currently exist on conservatives.com. I know this because I hoped to raise money to help Conservatives in Eastleigh in preparation for a possible by-election there – if Chris Huhne is sent to jail. Without the tools such fundraising is much harder.

Pasted below are a list of LibCon marginals if the boundary changes as currently drafted are confirmed.

Here are Lib Dem marginals with Majority over Con (* means Con are in third place)

Guiseley and Yeadon CC

0.3

Bodmin and Newquay CC

0.3

Abingdon and Oxford North CC

0.3

Solihull BC

2.1

Richmond and Twickenham BC

2.2

Hazel Grove and Poynton CC

2.2

Truro and St Austell CC

2.5

St Ives CC

2.7

North East Somerset CC

3.5

Glastonbury and Wincanton CC

4.0

South Powys

5.2

Berwick and Morpeth CC

5.7

Cheadle BC

6.3

Southport BC

6.3

Norwich South BC

6.4*

Eastbourne BC

6.6

Eastleigh BC

6.7

Bideford and Bude CC

7.8

Torbay BC

8.3

Kendal and Penrith CC

9.3

Cheltenham BC

9.3

Taunton CC

10.6

Teddington and Hanworth BC

11.2

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

11.3

North Devon CC

11.3

Argyll, Bute and Lochaber

11.5

Deeside and Gordon

12.3

Kingston and Surbiton

13.3

Cambridge BC

13.5

Edinburgh West

14.2*

Colchester BC

15.1

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