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At the Mayor of London election four years ago the final YouGov poll was spot on – Boris Johnson beating Ken Livingstone by six points, 53% to 47%. Just three days earlier they had an 11% Boris lead.

The current YouGov poll this time has a Boris lead of just 2%. So to state the obvious the race is wide open. Livingstone could still win – especially as it is likely he will be boosted by thousands of bogus votes in the East End – while the Electoral Commission passes by on the other side.

But, of course, it is encouraging that another poll has given an 8% Boris lead. This time it is from Survation for the Daily Telegraph. Unlike other polls it gives some tentative results for the London Assembly and suggests that the Conservatives will be down to eight members out of 25. It suggests that Brian Coleman will lose in Barnet and Camden. It also suggests that Richard Barnes in Ealing and Hillingdon and Kit Malthouse in West Central are ahead but by margins that are too close for comfort.

For the Conservatives to fall below nine seats would be significant as without a third of members supporting him the Mayor's budget could be blocked. Whether this would happen in practice is another matter. Would opposition parties really wish to block a cut in the Council tax precept for a budget which also found room in it for more police? The projections include two UKIP members on the London Assembly. Would they seek to thwart a tax cut?

28 comments for: New poll has 8% Boris lead – but could he get his budget through the London Assembly?