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The last time the elections being held on Thursday were contested the equivalent national vote was 43% for the Conservatives, 24% for Labour and 23% for the Lib Dems. This time an analysis of Council byelections by Rallings and Thrasher suggests Conservatives on 34%, Labour on 37% and Lib Dems on 18%. That would Labour gains of 700.

But a Survation poll for the Daily Mirror this morning offer figures, of those "almost certain" to vote of Labour 32%, Conservatives 26% and Lib Dems 15%. That would indicate Labour gains of 1,000. It would also that the Lib Dems were not doing relatively worse than the Conservatives and so that heavy Conservative losses to Labour would not be offset by Conservative gains from the Lib Dems.

The magic of numbers is such that if Labour achieve net gains of over 1,000 that would give them a psychological boost. A mantra to chant during the media analysis. The context that it had more to do with them being 19% behind four years ago rather than 6% ahead this time would probably get overlooked.

However my own hunch is that they won't hit 1,000 gains. Also that Conservatives will make significant offsetting gains from the Lib Dems.

22 comments for: Mirror/Survation poll would mean Labour make 1,000 gains on Thursday