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To win a seat on the London Assembly minor parties need to pass a threshold of 5%. Last time round the neo-Nazi BNP scraped through with a seat and thus soured the celebrations of Boris's victory. But I doubt they will make it this time round. At the General Election of 2010 they won just 1.5% of the vote in London.

What of UKIP? At the General Election they won 1.7% of the vote in London. But in the last Evening Standard poll they were on 5%. This was behind the Lib Dems on 9% but ahead of the Green Party on 2% and the BNP on 1%.

But this was on the question about voting intention for a General Election. When it came to voting for Mayor the UKIP candidate was on 1%. No question was asked about the London Assembly. I think UKIP might struggle to get the 5% they need as voters might not regard the London Assembly as a terribly relevant forum from which to champion withdrawal of our membership of the European Union.

But the Green Party could also be in trouble. Last time they won 8.43% in the top up London Assembly vote which gave them two seats. Their role on the London Assembly has been largely to act as stooges for Ken Livingstone – occasionally complaining that he isn't left wing enough for them.

In all sorts of practical ways Boris has been an eco friendly Mayor – planting trees, bike hire, a new bus that does 9.8 miles per gallon instead of five mpg that the average diesel double decker manages. But the Green Party have missed the chance to make a serious, constructive to this and instead have been entirely negative and partisan. If their vote share falls by a third – as it did at the General Election in 2010 – they will struggle to keep any seats in the London Assembly. Clearing out extremist anti capitalist parties like the BNP and the Green Party would be a most welcome outcome.

47 comments for: Will UKIP gain a London Assembly seat?