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A YouGov poll for the Evening Standard suggests a 2% poll lead for Ken Livingstone over Boris Johnson in the election for Mayor of London. In a run off Livingstone is on 51% against 49% for Boris. So too close to call but an indication of a  shift in support away from Boris. It suggests that Livingstone's campaign message of promising lower tube and bus fares has got some traction – whether the credibility of the policy will survive three months of scrutiny is another matter.

I still think the Boris will win and that his supporters will be more motivated to vote. But a source quoted by the Evening Standard from a Boris ally describes the poll as "sobering." Labour have a big majority among London voters – there problem is that many regular Labour supporters are intending to vote for Boris. To persuade Labour supporters to vote for a Labour candidate rather than a Conservative candidate is all Labour Party need to achieve. The challenge for them in seeking to do so is that the Labour candidate is Ken Livingstone and the Conservative candidate is Boris Johnson.

Any Conservatives who thought the election would be a walk over will have been given a timely awakening.

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