Published:

by Paul Goodman

Screen shot 2013-01-09 at 20.36.40It's worth reproducing it on the site, and here it is from Labour List.  You will see from the illustration on the right that most are Conservative-held. There are only eight Liberal Democrat ones in the top tranche, which I have marked in gold.

1 North Warwickshire
2 Thurrock
3 Hendon
4 Cardiff North
5 Sherwood
6 Norwich South
7 Stockton South
8 Broxtowe
9 Lancaster & Fleetwood
10 Bradford East
11 Amber Valley
12 Waveney
13 Wolverhampton SW
14 Morcambe & Lunesdale
15 Carlisle
16 Stroud
17 Weaver Vale
18 Lincoln
19 Brighton Pavilion
20 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
21 Dewsbury
22 Warrington South
23 Brent Central
24 Bedford
25 Brighton Kemptown
26 Pudsey
27 Brentford & Isleworth
28 Hove
29 Enfield North
30 Hastings & Rye
31 Manchester Withington
32 Burnley
33 Ipswich
34 Dundee East
35 East Dunbartonshire
36 Halesowen & Rowley Regis
37 Nuneaton
38 Gloucester
39 Northampton North
40 Bury North
41 Kingswood
42 Erewash
43 Blackpool North & Cleveleys
44 City of Chester
45 Arfon
46 Croydon Central
47 Worcester
48 Keighley
49 Wirral West
50 Cannock Chase
51 Loughborough
52 Harrow East
53 Warwick & Leamington
54 Birmingham Yardley
55 South Swindon
56 Ealing Central & Acton
57 Pendle
58 Stevenage
59 Elmet & Rithwell
60 Edinburgh West
61 Watford
62 Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire
63 Vale of Glamorgan
64 Argyll & Bute
65 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale
66 Carmarthen East & Dinefwr
67 Norwich North
68 High Peak
69 Milton Keynes South
70 Rossendale & Darwen
71 Cleethorpes
72 North East Somerset
73 Great Yarmouth
74 Dudley South
75 Dover
76 Colne Valley
77 South Ribble
78 Peterborough
79 Stafford
80 Stourbridge
81 Harlow
82 Aberconwy
83 Ilford North
84 Preseli Pembrokeshire
85 Brigg & Goole
86 Crewe & Nantwich
87 Bristol NW
88 Battersea
89 Finchley & Golders Green
90 Calder Valley
91 Redcar
92 Crawley
93 Hornsey & Wood Green
94 Reading West
95 Rugby
96 Burton
97 Cardiff Central
98 South Basildon & East Thurrock
99 Tamworth
100 Redditch

The Sun this morning reported Tom Watson claiming that Labour believes it can win a 60-seat majority at the next election, while the Times said that the party will "import a key part of President Obama’s re-election campaign and
flood more than 100 target seats with 1,000 community organisers".

Readers will remember that the concept of community organisers is associated in Britain with David Miliband and the Movement for Change.  There would be irony in Miliband Major helping to strike a decisive blow for Miliband Minor.  But the Labour sources I've spoken to place more stress on Arnie Graf, the American Obama supporter and campaigner now working for the party.

Some Conservative MPs holding marginal seats will freak out at the thought of 106 Labour constituency
organisers being paid £28,000 seats.  But they shouldn't despair quite yet, if at all. Watson concedes that “Our members are going to have to deliver this", and the membership of all the major parties is weaker than it was.  And sitting MPs have the power of incumbency.

Labour's real campaigning base is the unions, who helped protect crucial Labour marginals at the last election.  However, there is some evidence that at the last election the Conservatives performed more effectively in marginal seats.  So all to play for in each constituency.

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