By Tim Montgomerie
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Ed Miliband didn't win in Scotland.
He didn't win in Bradford West – his candidate was humiliated by one of the most odious people in British politics.
What if Ed Miliband doesn't win in London?
William Hill have already cut the odds on Mr Miliband being ousted. Ed Balls is sitting in his study now, dusting off the Yvette-for-Leader campaign plan and ordering in some extra lasagne.
In truth Ed Miliband is a loser whatever happens in London. If Boris is re-elected it's confirmation that Ed Miliband's Labour Party is hardly capturing the zeitgeist. If Ken Livingstone is elected Mr Miliband will be under pressure to move further Leftwards and mimic Red Ken's politics of division, grievance and state dependency. Livingstone will become the darling of Labour's redroots.
Ed Miliband may survive because the Labour brand is strong and there is a growing realisation (eg here and here and here) that the Conservatives are going to struggle to win the next election. At some point, however, Labour may decide that depriving the Tories of a majority is the best that Ed Miliband can do. They might get ambitious for a majority of their own and that's much likelier with another leader in place.
For the moment Tories take great comfort from Ed Miliband's electability. David Cameron apparently believes that Labour won't remove him. George Osborne thinks that they might well change leader. Every Tory hopes that Mr Cameron is correct.
10am Danny Finkelstein in The Times (£): "Ed Miliband needs to beat David Cameron and take votes from Nick Clegg. Seats like Bradford which are amenable to an alliance between Muslims and the far left are rare. He should be more worried about Liam Byrne leaving the Shadow Cabinet, and why he is doing it, than about Galloway’s victory."