If turnout matches 2015 it would be 78; if it matches the EU referendum just 52; or if everyone votes as they say they will, it climbs to 96.
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But if turnout stays the same as the 2015 General Election, it could well be higher.
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Lord Ashcroft: My election model’s probabilities currently suggest a potential Conservative majority of 60
But there is still much to play for: we find no fewer than 70 seats where Labour and the Tories are within five per cent of each other.
Lord Ashcroft: “She called the snap election, and can’t be bothered turning up to it”. My final general election focus groups
Some voters have gone off Theresa May over the course of the campaign – but many won’t switch to Labour because of Brexit.
Lord Ashcroft: My election model’s probabilities currently suggest a potential Conservative majority of 142
Plus, we now present the different potential outcomes in each seat on a variety of turnouts.
Lord Ashcroft: “Sturgeon still keeps banging on about independence”. My general election focus groups from Scotland.
For most of those considering a change of parties, this left one viable option: “I hate to say it, but the Tories.”
Lord Ashcroft: My election model’s probabilities currently suggest a potential Conservative majority of 162
Labour do less well when figures are based on information about who has probably turned out to vote are used. The party’s turnout, then, will be crucial to the result.
Lord Ashcroft: “Vote Labour and get a free kitten” – my General Election focus groups, with three weeks to go
Previous Labour voters wondered whether the party’s pledges were credible or affordable.
It comes with a stipulation of its own. My constituency estimates, to adapt my 2015 mantra, are a probability, not a prediction.
Lord Ashcroft: In the West Midlands, the heads of my Labour-background focus group battle with their hearts
“I just feel worried. I don’t know if I would a hundred per cent want to vote for the Conservatives, because still emotionally I’m attached to Labour.”
Lord Ashcroft: This contest is Emirates v Easyjet. That’s the verdict of my first election focus group.
“Labour’s EasyJet and they’ll just tell you, oh, the pilot’s sick today, don’t worry, there’s a bloke from down the road who’s just woken up to fly your plane.”
Plus, Karl Rove discusses the differences between running a business and governing.
Lord Ashcroft: The parties.The leaders. And leaving the EU. What my 10,000-sample poll and focus groups found.
If the Government thinks that we cannot have our Brexit cake and eat it, Ministers must be careful not to let expectations get out of hand.
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