Key voters include those who voted heavily to remain in the EU, and were decisive in the lost Tory seats of Battersea, Kensington, Kingston and Twickenham.
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Lord Ashcroft: The Conservatives can’t rely on Brexit to win them the next election. They need to do much more – and soon.
The reputation for competence that once covered a multitude of Tory sins has deserted the party and needs to be restored.
Opposition to a new poll outweighed support in all scenarios but one: a choice between accepting the terms negotiated for Brexit, or leaving without a deal.
People did not feel committed to their current party. The next election was, they hoped, a long way away, by which time much could have changed.
Not surprisingly, the country remains sharply divided as to the merits of its leader – a division that can hardly be missed in this new polling.
Lord Ashcroft: Voters are losing confidence that a good deal on leaving the EU will be secured for Britain
My research shows that both Remain and Leave voters are less sure about the prospect of a good outcome than they were before the general election.
While we still have a commitment to spend 0.7 per cent of our GDP on foreign aid, I would much rather see such funds allocated to our Overseas Territories.
Lord Ashcroft: Voters needed to see competence from the Conservatives this week. Unfortunately, there is way to go.
If it might not be the catastrophe it must have seemed, today has not made things any easier.
Plus: Johnson’s cunning plan. Crisis? What crisis? Paterson breaks into German. And when Green was chucked over a bridge.
Lord Ashcroft’s conference diary: Revealed – the MP who led the singing of Happy Birthday to the Prime Minister
Plus: I’ve worked as a postman, a barman and a swimming pool attendant, the new for new talent, and welcoming Michael Dugher.
Plus: Economics is not enough, two lots of protesters (one in first class travel), and keeping fit at Party Conference.
Lord Ashcroft’s conference diary: Of capitalism, Corbyn, my new book…and my past life as a taxi driver
Political leaders always say that the election they are fighting is the most important for a generation, but the next time Britain goes to the polls it will probably be true.
Lord Ashcroft: The general election. How the Conservatives damaged their reputation for competence without gaining one for compassion.
Nearly everything believed to exercise Labour more than the Tories was also named more often as a priority for “me and my family” than for Britain as a whole.
Most Labour voters think their party should support strike action if pay demands are not met, and most voters think private sector wages are higher.
If turnout matches 2015 it would be 78; if it matches the EU referendum just 52; or if everyone votes as they say they will, it climbs to 96.